🔗 Share this article

Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three warring blocs – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the following day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his successor would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”