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Just two days before the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.