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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|